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Hawk_Eye

Eskom the writing on the wall

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Hawk_Eye    1,357

http://www.fin24.com/Economy/Eskom/Over-50-chance-of-grid-meltdown-energy-analyst-20150624

 

Hello darkness my old friend.................

 

 

Johannesburg - There is a more than 50% chance that the country's energy grid will suffer a total collapse soon, energy analyst Ted Blom said on Wednesday.

"I believe that the probability of a grid meltdown is more than 50%," he told a National Energy Regulator of SA (Nersa) panel at a public hearing in Johannesburg on Eskom's application for a further hike in tariffs.

"A total grid collapse is what we don't want to face because it will take you anything between a week and two weeks to recover, and I'm not even talking about the mayhem that will occur in the meantime."

He said this was a topic that had been treated quietly until last Wednesday, where Eskom said there was a zero possibility of a grid collapse.

Blom then gave the rundown of his reasoning.

"According to my estimate, the weekend or overnight demand is around about 22 GW (gigawatts)... I might be wrong by a couple of gigawatts, I am not too worried about that.

"The peak demand is 35.5 GW as we are told by Eskom - the winter demand," he said.

"These are the numbers that only came out in the last week from the "war room" ... that the serviced, or what you and I know as roadworthy generator sets are roughly 40% of the fleet. Fair condition, 12% of the fleet. Poor condition, 21% of the fleet, critical condition, 26% of the fleet."

'The balance is poor and critical'

Blom said that if you add up the fair and roadworthy sets, you would get around 20 GW.

"So you have 20 GW... the balance is poor and critical," he said.

"The normal safety margin around the world is 15%, that is roughly 6.5 GW.

"Eskom's new winter strategy, they told us proudly last week, will only have a 1 000 MW safety margin, and it is roughly 2.5% of what is considered an appropriate safety margin.

"So according to that, and I am willing to challenge anybody... I am forecasting that there is a better than 50% probability of a total grid collapse."

Blom also ran through Eskom's "state of health", where he illustrated various shortfalls Eskom was suffering, including coal, water and maintenance .

"I don't think it will survive five years in its current state... you decide that for yourself," he said.

"I think it is patently clear that this Eskom is not sustainable, a fact that auditors should have whistle-blown on years ago, and I wonder why they haven't...  maybe they don't want to lose the audit contract."

He also said Eskom must not get its request for its hike.

The parastatal is applying for a 24.78% increase. It had already received a 12.6% increase, which would make up part of the 24.78%.

"As far as I am concerned, there is no legal basis for the re-opener [the application for the higher tariffs]."

* Comments for this story have been closed. Please email Fin24 constructive opinions, which will be published separately. 

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Guest TCFireman   
Guest TCFireman

What an absolute farce

They will still get their bonuses

And this will continue for another three years minimum

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Hawk_Eye    1,357

But, some are now seeing that the chickens have come back to roost.  Them communists have their theory now in practice and it does not seem to work..

 

http://mg.co.za/article/2015-06-25-sacp-our-zuma-mistake

More at the link...

 

 

The SACP, regretful it created a cult around Zuma, is heading for a tripartite alliance meeting divided over what position to take.

The SACP, which is agitating about always rallying behind the ANC come election time, has openly stated it made a political blunder by putting too much trust in Zuma. (Madelene Cronjé, M&G)

The South African Communist Party, which helped propel Jacob Zuma to power, regrets replacing Thabo Mbeki with a cult figure and putting too much trust in Zuma. It admits this was a political blunder.

As the tripartite alliance meets this weekend, there are deep divisions within the SACP about how it should align itself with the ANC, and whether it should contest national elections in its own name.

Some of its leaders fear life in the alliance after Zuma, and argue that the ANC is weak and has failed to lead the alliance properly.

As factions grow towards the end of Zuma’s term as the country’s president, his erstwhile allies are expressing doubts about his leadership. They include former union boss Zwelinzima Vavi, the Economic Freedom Fighters’ Julius Malema and now the communist party.

 
 
 
 

The SACP, which has labelled the ANC leadership and strategic vision under Mbeki as a 1996 class project, said defeating him did not end the project, and that rallying around Zuma was no solution.

Part of the problem, according to the communists, was to “excessively” project Zuma as a messiah.

Frank admission
The SACP’s frank admission is contained in a discussion document, titled Meeting the Challenges Facing the Trade Union Movement, released before the party’s upcoming special congress. The document has been circulated to some provincial heads.

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Guest TCFireman   
Guest TCFireman

Watching Zuma make fun of the way people pronounce Nkandla in parliament, made such a mockery of anything remotely normal in South Africa.

- 900 or so charges against him regarding the arms deal

- Admitting he thought he could not contract aids because he showered after apparently raping a woman with HIV

- R250 - R300 million on his personal home with tax payers money

These are still only the minor one's we know about, yet he remains the president

It just defies belief that people will still vote this despicable idiot in

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taipan    1,432

Watching Zuma make fun of the way people pronounce Nkandla in parliament, made such a mockery of anything remotely normal in South Africa.

- 900 or so charges against him regarding the arms deal

- Admitting he thought he could not contract aids because he showered after apparently raping a woman with HIV

- R250 - R300 million on his personal home with tax payers money

These are still only the minor one's we know about, yet he remains the president

It just defies belief that people will still vote this despicable idiot in

​Which is why universal suffrage should be banned world wide

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Hawk_Eye    1,357

Maybe the only good thing Zuma did was befriend Vlad!  LOL

 

(N.Morgan) In this latest move by Vladimir Putin, he issues his final warning, Elites your time is at an end.

As we know, Putin has been very open about his disdain for the Power Elite and now he is ready for war.

Putin wants Russia to get the respect he feels is due his country.

Please read this speech very carefully, as Putin is not bluffing.

He laid out the Russian doctrine very carefully with many warnings.

He is planning war with NATO, Europe and America.

More with Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxZMXtw5BH4

 

 

 

 

Edited by James Hunt

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Hawk_Eye    1,357

Here are the key points of his speech:

6. Russia will not attempt to reformat the world in her own image, but neither will she allow anyone to reformat her in their image.

Russia will not close herself off from the world, but anyone who tries to close her off from the world will be sure to reap a whirlwind.

7. Russia does not wish for the chaos to spread, does not want war, and has no intention of starting one.

However, today Russia sees the outbreak of global war as almost inevitable, is prepared for it, and is continuing to prepare for it. Russia does not war—nor does she fear it.

8. Russia does not intend to take an active role in thwarting those who are still attempting to construct their New World Order—until their efforts start to impinge on Russia’s key interests.

Russia would prefer to stand by and watch them give themselves as many lumps as their poor heads can take.

But those who manage to drag Russia into this process, through disregard for her interests, will be taught the true meaning of pain.”

Our world may be at the dangerous cusp of WWIII.

Will Putin follow through if his demands arne’t met?

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taipan    1,432

So ESKOM loses application for increase

Edited by taipan

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Hawk_Eye    1,357

So ESKOM loses application for increase

While Nersa has rejected Eskom's application to hike electricity tariffs by an additional 9.58%, it says the door is open for it to submit a completely new application.

Like with everything under this government it is such a hell of a bureaucratic lot of bullshit.

http://www.fin24.com/Economy/Eskom/LIVE-Will-Eskom-get-its-tariff-increase-20150629

 

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Guest TCFireman   
Guest TCFireman

So ESKOM loses application for increase

​Correct, but, here is the joke

The door is not entirely closed because Nersa has given permission for Eskom to re-submit a completely new application

 

Edited by TCFireman

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Guest TCFireman   
Guest TCFireman

Beat me to it Hawk

Edited by TCFireman

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